Hello world - Background and the hypothesis

My background is just like a lot of people looking for a reasonable property in the lower North Shore in Sydney. I am a "finance professional" and my wife, who used to be a banker, is staying home looking after our 2 young kids. We are in the early/mid 30s. We are looking for a 4/5 bedroom house in the typical lower North Shore suburb (Wollstonecraft, Waverton, Kirribilli, Neutral Bay, Mosman etc etc....)...

I am writing this blog because I find the process utterly frustrating. And am looking to create a forum to share tips and insights into the sydney property market.

The obvious quesiton is what is the "value add" here as there are volumes written about the Sydney/Australian property market. Not to mention we already have blogs from real estate agents and even buyers' agents. My gripe with all the "experts" out there is they are all cut from the same cloth. There is no original thinking from anyone.......

Here is my hypothesis on the Sydney property market, in particular I am focusing on the lower North Shore. My hypothesis is the LNS property market may fall as much as 25-35% over the next 2-3 years.

These are my rough arguments (I will expand on these points as I post more). My quick and dirty yardstick is gross rental yield of 4% for a reasonable house in the area is inadequate. It is adequate in the context of an ever rising property market. However, once people become disillusioned with their price appreciation expectation, why should 4% suffice ? I won't be surprised if LNS market may have peaked for the next 5-10 years. In this instance, I am falling back on the customary arguments of housing affordability, rising unemployment etc etc....I wish to add another observation if I may....Has anyone notice that the banks are now assuming consumers are after 30-year mortgages ? I figure, once a mortgage takes longer than 10-15 years to pay back, there is not a lot of difference between a 30-year mortgage and a 100-year mortgage.

In the future posts, I will further expand on various points. Feel free to comment and offer the counter arguments.