Black Swan

I have been working in the finance industry for over 10 years now. Through the period, I have seen and experienced several vicious bear markets. I have seen stocks falling by over 99%. Yours truly did have a few of these quality stocks as well. I have also seen property prices falling by over 60-70% in other countries as well. This leads me to the next question. Why do we think the Sydney housing market will come through the current financial mess unscathed ?

I often wonder if this is a case of a "Black Swan" waiting to happen ? 12-18 months ago, not many people could have predicted the sub-prime mess in USA would blow out into a global financial crisis. In the context of this crisis, why is it so difficult to believe that the Sydney property prices can easily fall 30-40% ?

A lot of commentators point to falling interest rate as a potential safety valve. You can ask people in Japan what has been happening to property prices in Tokyo since the bubble years. How about supply and demand ? An anecdotal observation is consumers have more babies during boom times. Migration (international or domestic) is driven by where jobs are. My point is property is a confidence game. 

The sentiment in Sydney at the moment smells like USA 12-18 months ago. At the time, a lotof  people thought the problems would be contained. They were optimistic for no other reason than they were optimistic. Does this ring a bell ? I can hear a Black Swan silently flying into Sydney....