Sunday, July 19, 2009

Watching paint dry

What is there to say about the Sydney property market ? It is certainly good to have my Saturday back. Not a lot of choices. Prices remain high. We have gone from focusing on the LNS market. And now we are even widening our search to the Upper North Shore. Prices in Lindfield and Roseville are certainly not especially affordable either. The way things are going we will be looking at Newcastle next :) Just plain boring. I figure it will be more exciting watching the Masterchef grand final today. I love the show. It is a different kind of reality show where the hosts come across as genuinely trying to help/teach the contestants, instead of creating a snake pit. By the way, hate to say it but I suspect property prices may not come down in a hurry either. The other day I saw this article about how investment banks in Australia are really doing well this year. They have benefited from all the placements earlier in the year. 2009 is shaping up to be a very good year relative to 2007-2008. No wonder the more expensive houses are starting to move.

Turning to the stock market, same story....The US market has gone back from the edge of the abyss and is looking to challenge the recent high. The so called "head and shoulder" topping action has been averted. We will see how sustainable is it. Volume on the decline and the recent surge has been quite dismal. Suspect we are still in the middle of no where despite more confidence about the global economy pulling out of this mess relatively soon. Now there is this emerging idea that we are looking at a "square root" recovery. What will happen next year is NOW the BIG question ?

How does one cope in this environment ? One common mistake people make is they think they have to act all the time. Sometimes it makes a lot of sense to just stand on the sideline and observe. My philosophy with investing is one can make very good investments during crisis. It is almost guaranteed that something will go amiss over the next 4-6 years. The period in between is more about maintenance and protecting capital. Maybe now is such a time....

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