Saturday, May 16, 2009

Oh what joy !!!

Today, we went and looked at a few houses in Mosman. We went to this house which has been on the market for quite some time. Quite expensive and out of our price range somewhat. Anyway, there were no other parties, other than the agent. The agent did not even bother to take down our contact details. Haha he saw us when we were parking :)

Anyway, it does seem like the market is thawing. More people are looking. And they are prepared to bid on properties as well. In fact, I notice that several "dated" stocks had been sold in the past 2-3 weeks. It got me thinking...Is my thesis wrong ? Don't know yet because a lot does hinge on the economy.

The Domain blog has been quite entertaining lately. The latest blog features the typical shouting match between the bulls and the bears. One of the bulls even went as far as to suggest one of the bear posters could not afford a property otherwise.

Oh what joy !!! Oh what fun to be a contrarian. One suspects there are more bulls than bears out there. Truth be told, it is easy to join the bullish crowd. Just hit the bank for a 30-year mortgage. But to be contrarian after considering a lot of other factors, it is a different matter. In a perverse sense, I still feel that my "hypothesis" is right for the simple reason that it is not the consensus view. One of the changes which the bulls (people who are buying houses and paying roughly 2008 prices) may not have taken into considation is how suddenly the governments (Federal + States) are running up massive debts. The long term implications can't hardly be positive. Time will tell......


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